Simulate the environmental effects of global warming. New facts in the history of global warming. Change in solar activity
Global warming will greatly affect the lives of some animals. For example, polar bears, seals and penguins will be forced to change their habitats as the polar ice caps disappear. Many species of animals and plants will also disappear, unable to adapt to the rapidly changing environment. 250 million years ago, global warming killed three-quarters of all life on Earth
Global warming will change the climate on a global scale. An increase in the number of climatic disasters, an increase in the number of floods due to hurricanes, desertification and a reduction in summer precipitation by 15-20% in the main agricultural areas, an increase in the level and temperature of the ocean, and the boundaries of natural zones are expected to shift to the north.
Moreover, according to some forecasts, global warming will trigger the onset of the Little Ice Age. In the 19th century, the cause of such a cooling was the eruption of volcanoes, in our century the reason is already different - the desalination of the world's oceans as a result of the melting of glaciers
How will global warming affect humans?
In the short term: lack of drinking water, an increase in the number of infectious diseases, problems in agriculture due to droughts, an increase in the number of deaths due to floods, hurricanes, heat and drought.
The worst hit could be in the poorest countries, which are least responsible for exacerbating the problem and least prepared for climate change. Warming and rising temperatures, in the end, can reverse everything that was achieved by the work of previous generations.
The destruction of established and customary farming systems under the influence of droughts, irregular rainfall, etc. could actually push some 600 million people to the brink of starvation. By 2080, 1.8 billion people will experience severe water shortages. And in Asia and China, due to the melting of glaciers and changes in the nature of precipitation, an ecological crisis may occur.
An increase in temperature by 1.5-4.5°C will lead to a rise in the ocean level by 40-120 cm (according to some calculations, up to 5 meters). This means the flooding of many small islands and flooding in coastal areas. About 100 million inhabitants will be in flood-prone areas, more than 300 million people will be forced to migrate, some states will disappear (for example, the Netherlands, Denmark, part of Germany).
The World Health Organization (WHO) believes that the health of hundreds of millions of people may be at risk as a result of the spread of malaria (due to the increase in the number of mosquitoes in flooded areas), intestinal infections (due to the violation of water and sewer systems), etc.
In the long term, this may lead to the next stage of human evolution. Our ancestors faced a similar problem when the temperature rose sharply by 10°C after the ice age, but that is what led to the creation of our civilization.
Experts do not have accurate data on what is the contribution of humanity to the observed increase in temperatures on Earth and what a chain reaction could be.
Also, the exact relationship between the increase in the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere and the increase in temperatures is not known. This is one of the reasons why temperature forecasts vary so much. And this gives food to skeptics: some scientists consider the problem of global warming somewhat exaggerated, as well as data on the increase in the average temperature on Earth.
Scientists do not have a common opinion about what the final balance of positive and negative effects of climate change can be, and according to what scenario the situation will develop further.
A number of scientists believe that several factors may weaken the effect of global warming: as temperatures rise, plant growth will accelerate, which will allow plants to take more carbon dioxide from the atmosphere.
Others believe that the possible negative effects of global climate change are underestimated:
droughts, cyclones, storms and floods will become more frequent,
an increase in the temperature of the world's oceans also causes an increase in the strength of hurricanes,
the rate of glacier melt and ocean level rise will also be faster…. And this is confirmed by the latest research data.
Already, the ocean level has increased by 4 cm instead of the predicted 2 cm, the rate of glacier melting has increased by 3 times (the thickness of the ice cover has decreased by 60-70 cm, and the area of non-melting ice in the Arctic Ocean has decreased by 14% in 2008 alone).
It is possible that human activity has already doomed the ice cover to complete disappearance, which could result in a several times greater rise in ocean level (by 5-7 meters instead of 40-60 cm).
Moreover, according to some reports, global warming may come much faster than previously thought due to the release of carbon dioxide from ecosystems, including from the oceans.
And finally, we must not forget that after global warming, global cooling may come.
However, whatever the scenario, everything points to the fact that we must stop playing dangerous games with the planet and reduce our impact on it. It is better to overestimate the danger than to underestimate it. It is better to do everything possible to prevent it than to bite your elbows later. Who is warned is armed.
At the end of the last century, a group of scientists went to the Arctic. It is here that the history of our planet is perfectly preserved in the thickness of the ice. Ice is a time machine that takes us back in time, revealing a picture of climate change. Everything was preserved in the layers of ice - sand and volcanic dust, the concentration of isotopes and carbon dioxide. Therefore, it is easy to understand what happened to the atmosphere. If you make a graph of changes in ambient temperature and the level of carbon dioxide obtained in ice cores, then the cause of the crisis in the modern world will become obvious. The level of carbon dioxide is directly dependent on the temperature level. In the twenty-first century, the content of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere began to grow at a gigantic pace. Carbon dioxide is one of the known greenhouse gases. The thing is that greenhouse gases trap the heat radiated from the surface of our planet. Instead of leaving the atmosphere, heat remains in it. And the greenhouse effect causes global warming. What global warming can lead to and its consequences, you will learn in this article.
Causes of global warming
If the level of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere continues to rise further, an unenviable future awaits humanity. Warming is inevitable, and scientists provide several evidence for this fact. If we look at the situation with the Arctic, we can find that it was the Arctic that received quite a lot of sunlight during the cold period. At first glance, it is a little strange why the abundance of the sun gives little heat, but the reason for everything is carbon dioxide. In Antarctica, during cold times, the level of carbon dioxide was low, and when it was warm in this area, the concentration of carbon dioxide was increased. The relationship between these two indicators was discovered long ago, but in the twenty-first century the situation has changed. So, after all, what will global warming and its consequences lead to? Today, the jump in the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is due not only to natural processes. The human factor played a big role.
Global warming is an irreversible process and is projected to reach an all-time high by the end of this century.
A century and a half ago, the industrial revolution began, the rapid development of production led to the fact that the level of carbon dioxide began to rise sharply. People burn fuel, fossils, cut down trees. That is why carbon dioxide accumulates in the atmosphere. If a person does not change anything, then the level of carbon dioxide will continue to grow, increasing by thirty percent every half century. At this rate, the temperature on the planet will reach a record high by the end of this century. But maybe not everything is so terrible, and humanity will live well in the new conditions: exotic fruits will be grown in Russia, and winter holidays will become like summer ones? Let's turn to the opinion of the great minds of mankind.
Consequences of global warming
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The mechanisms that caused the melting of glaciers millions of years ago are still working today. Humanity is worried that our planet is approaching global melting several times faster than it was before. Once past the tipping point, climate change will be irreversible. An increase in average temperature by only 5-7 degrees can have a detrimental effect on the ecosystem and humans. Earth is on the verge of a planetary cataclysm. If effective and urgent action is not taken, perhaps our generation will already witness a sea level rise of six meters.
Today it is not known exactly when the process of melting ice will become irreversible. Some scientists believe that even now the destruction of the ice cover has passed the critical point. True, according to the most optimistic forecasts, if you start taking measures, the situation can be saved. Of course, humanity can move cities deep into the continents, start building walls, but in case of failure, the world will change completely - social, economic disasters, chaos, the struggle for survival - that's what awaits us. Tomorrow may not be like today, but it all depends on us.
Average time to read: 9 minutes, 10 seconds
Part 1. What's going on?
Which is correct: climate change or global warming?
Both options are correct, but they have different meanings.
Global warming is just one type of climate change. The term "climate change" refers not only to rising temperatures, but also to changes in other climatic characteristics, such as fluctuations in rainfall.
President Trump has argued that scientists are no longer referring to global warming and are now calling it climate change because "the weather was very cold" during the winter. But his statement is wrong. Scholars have been using both terms for decades.
How much has the earth's temperature risen?
Just over 1°C is more than it looks.
Since 1980, when data were first recorded globally, and as of early 2017, the Earth has warmed by about 1°C. The number may not seem significant, but if you consider it as an average over the surface of the planet, the changes are palpable, which explains the melting of glaciers and the rapid rise in sea levels. If greenhouse gas emissions do not stop, scientists predict a rise in the average temperature of the Earth by 4 ° C, and then most of the land will become uninhabitable for humans.
What is the greenhouse effect and how does it affect the climate?
It's hard to believe, but mankind has known about the greenhouse effect for more than a century.
In the 19th century, scientists discovered that certain gases trap heat radiated from the Earth, without which it would escape into space. The main role in this process is played by carbon dioxide: without it, the planet would be a frozen desert. In 1896, the first prediction was made that the temperature on the planet would rise due to an increase in the concentration of greenhouse gases. Today, their number in the atmosphere has increased by 43% compared to the pre-industrial period, and the average temperature of the Earth has increased by about the value that scientists predicted.
Can it be argued that it is man who is responsible for the increase in the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere?
It is obvious.
There is compelling evidence, such as studies that have used radioactive radiation to determine the share of industrial emissions of greenhouse gases. Research results show that excess gas is the result of human activity. Carbon dioxide levels have always risen and fallen naturally, but these changes have lasted for thousands of years. Geologists say that people in the course of economic activity release carbon dioxide into the atmosphere much more intensively than nature has ever done.
Can natural factors be the cause of warming?
Nope.
Theoretically, it is possible. If solar radiation increased, this would undoubtedly increase the temperature of the Earth's atmosphere. But scientists have carefully studied the natural factors that affect the temperature of the Earth, and found that their changes would not be enough to entail such an effect. Warming is occurring at an extremely rapid rate on a geologic time scale, and no single factor can have a greater impact than human activity.
Why do people deny the fact of climate change?
The main reason is ideology.
Instead of negotiating market-driven climate change policy, some conservatives are denying global warming by challenging the scientific evidence.
President Trump has repeatedly claimed that scientists are running a worldwide hoax to deceive the public, or that global warming was invented by China to destabilize American industry. The skeptics' arguments have become so dubious that even the oil and coal companies have distanced themselves from such discussions, although some of them still fund the election campaigns of politicians who hold such views.
Part 2. What are the consequences?
How big are we in trouble?
We are in trouble.
Scientists say that in the next 25-30 years the climate will become warmer and weather patterns more extreme. Coral reefs and other vulnerable habitats are already beginning to die out. If emissions of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere continue to rise uncontrollably, scientists fear serious consequences in the long term: disruption of the world order, large-scale migration, accelerating the sixth mass extinction of plants and animals in the history of the Earth, melting glaciers, rising sea levels and flooding most of the world's coastal cities. The emissions that create these risks are happening right now and are an occasion to reflect on the deep moral questions facing our generation.
Should I be concerned about climate change?
Are you rich enough to protect your descendants?
The harsh reality is that people, sometimes without realizing it, are already feeling the effects of climate change. For example, rising sea levels affected about 83,000 New Yorkers and New Jersey residents during Hurricane Sandy, which scientists believe would not have happened in a stable climate. Tens of thousands of people are already dying in heat waves that are only exacerbated by global warming. The refugee flows that have destabilized the political situation around the world have been linked in part to climate change. Of course, as with other socially significant problems, the first and heaviest blow will be borne by the poor.
By how much will sea level rise?
It is important not "how much it will grow", but how quickly.
Sea levels are rising rapidly and are currently rising at a rate of 0.3 meters per 100 years, forcing governments and property owners to spend tens of billions of dollars to combat coastal erosion. But if this trend does not change, the consequences of such an increase can be controlled, experts say.
The risk, however, is precisely that sea levels will continue to rise. Scientists who study the history of the Earth believe that in the worst case, water will rise by half a meter in a decade, although this is unlikely. Many experts believe that even if greenhouse gas emissions stop tomorrow, sea level rise of 4-6 meters is already inevitable and enough to flood many cities, unless trillions of dollars are spent to protect them. How long this will take is unclear. But if the emissions continue, it could eventually rise to 24-30 meters.
Are recent natural disasters related to climate change?
Some of them - yes.
Scientists have published strong evidence that global warming is the cause of heat waves. As the global sea level rises due to human emissions, tropical rainstorms and flooding become stronger. Global warming has exacerbated droughts in the Middle East and may have contributed to the recent drought in California.
In many other cases, the connection of natural phenomena, such as hurricanes, with global warming is not obvious or controversial. But modern methods of climate analysis allow scientists to constantly improve their knowledge of natural phenomena.
Part 3. What can we do?
Is there a solution to the problem?
Yes, but decisions are made too slowly.
Mankind has not taken any action for a long time, therefore, according to scientists, the situation is now disappointing. But as long as fossil fuels remain in the earth, it is not too late to act. Atmospheric heating will only slow down to potentially manageable rates if greenhouse gas emissions are reduced to zero. The good news is that emissions are now being reduced in many countries as a result of programs such as fuel economy standards for cars, stricter building codes and emission limits for power plants. But experts are of the opinion that in order to prevent the worst effects of climate change, the process of switching to renewable energy sources must accelerate significantly.
What is the Paris Agreement?
Most countries have agreed to limit emissions in the future.
This is an increase in the average temperature on Earth, which has been recorded since the end of the 19th century. Over land and ocean since the beginning of the 20th century, it has risen by an average of 0.8 degrees.
Scientists believe that by the end of the 21st century, the temperature may rise by an average of 2 degrees (a negative forecast is 4 degrees).
But the increase is quite small, does it really affect something?
All climate changes that we feel ourselves are the consequences of global warming. This is what has happened on Earth over the past century.
- On all continents, there are more hot days and fewer cold days.
- Global sea level has risen by 14 centimeters. The area of glaciers is shrinking, they are melting, the water is desalinated, the movement of ocean currents is changing.
- As the temperature increased, the atmosphere began to hold more moisture. This has resulted in more frequent and more powerful storms, especially in North America and Europe.
- In some regions of the world (Mediterranean, West Africa) there are more droughts, in others (midwest USA, northwest Australia), on the contrary, they have become less.
What caused global warming?
Additional entry into the atmosphere of greenhouse gases: methane, carbon dioxide, water vapor, ozone. They absorb long wavelengths of infrared radiation without releasing them into space. Because of this, a greenhouse effect forms on Earth.
Global warming has provoked the rapid development of industry. The more emissions from enterprises, the more actively deforestation takes place (and they absorb carbon dioxide), the more greenhouse gases accumulate. And the more the Earth warms up.
What can all this lead to?
Scientists predict that further global warming can intensify processes that are detrimental to people, provoke droughts, floods, and the lightning spread of dangerous diseases.
- Due to rising sea levels, many settlements located in the coastal zone will be flooded.
- The consequences of storms will become more global.
- The rainy seasons will become longer, leading to more floods.
- The duration of dry periods will also increase, which threatens with powerful droughts.
- Tropical cyclones will become stronger: the wind speed will be higher, precipitation - more abundant.
- The combination of higher temperatures and drought will make it difficult to grow some crops.
- Many animal species will migrate in order to maintain their familiar habitats. Some of them may disappear altogether. For example, ocean acidification, which absorbs carbon dioxide (it is released when fossil fuels are burned), kills oysters and coral reefs, worsens the conditions for the existence of predators.
Hurricanes Harvey and Irma are also provoked by global warming?
According to one version, warming in the Arctic is to blame for the formation of destructive hurricanes. It created an atmospheric "blockade" - it slowed down the circulation of jet streams in the atmosphere. Because of this, powerful "slow-moving" storms were formed, which absorbed a huge amount of moisture. But there is not enough evidence for this theory yet.
Many climatologists rely on the Clausius-Clapeyron equation, according to which an atmosphere with a higher temperature contains more moisture, and therefore conditions arise for the formation of more powerful storms. The water temperature in the ocean where Harvey formed is about 1 degree above average.
Approximately according to the same pattern, hurricane Irma was formed. The process began in warm waters off the coast of West Africa. For 30 hours, the elements intensified to the third category (and then to the highest, fifth). Meteorologists have recorded such a rate of formation for the first time in two decades.
Are we waiting for what was described in the film "The Day After Tomorrow"?
Scientists believe that such hurricanes may become the norm. True, climatologists do not yet predict an instant global cooling, as in the film.
Extreme weather events have already taken first place in the top five global risks for 2017, announced at the World Economic Forum. 90% of the biggest economic losses in the world today are due to floods, hurricanes, floods, heavy rains, hail, droughts.
Okay, but why was this summer so cold in Russia with global warming?
It does not interfere. Scientists have developed a model that explains this.
Global warming has led to an increase in temperature in the Arctic Ocean. The ice began to actively melt, the circulation of air flows changed, and with them the seasonal schemes for the distribution of atmospheric pressure changed.
Previously, the weather in Europe was made by the Arctic Oscillation with the seasonal Azores High (a high pressure area) and the Icelandic Low. Between these two areas, a westerly wind was formed, which brought warm air from the Atlantic.
But due to rising temperatures, the pressure difference between the Azores High and the Icelandic Low has narrowed. Air masses increasingly began to move not from west to east, but along the meridians. Arctic air can penetrate deep south and bring cold.
Is it worth it for the people of Russia to pack an alarming suitcase in case of similarity to "Harvey"?
If there is a desire, . Who is warned is armed. This summer, hurricanes were recorded in many Russian cities, the likes of which have not been seen in strength for the past 100 years.
According to Roshydromet, in 1990-2000, 150-200 dangerous hydrometeorological phenomena were recorded in our country, which caused damage. Today, their number exceeds 400, and the consequences are becoming more devastating.
Global warming is manifested not only in climate change. For several years, scientists from the A. A. Trofimuk Institute of Petroleum Geology and Geophysics have been warning about the danger to cities and towns in northern Russia.
Huge funnels have formed here, from which explosive methane can be released.
Previously, these funnels were heaving mounds: an underground "storage" of ice. But due to global warming, they have melted. The voids were filled with gas hydrates, the release of which is similar to an explosion.
A further increase in temperature can exacerbate the process. It poses a particular danger to Yamal and the cities located close to it: Nadym, Salekhard, Novy Urengoy.
Can global warming be stopped?
Yes, if the energy system is completely rebuilt. Today, about 87% of the world's energy comes from fossil fuels (oil, coal, gas).
To reduce the amount of emissions, it is necessary to use low-carbon energy sources: wind, sun, geothermal processes (occurring in the bowels of the earth).
Another way is to develop carbon capture, where carbon dioxide is extracted from emissions from power plants, refineries and other industries and pumped underground.
What's stopping you from doing it?
There are a number of reasons for this: political (defending the interests of certain companies), technological (alternative energy is considered too expensive) and others.
The most active "producers" of greenhouse gases are China, USA, EU countries, India, Russia.
If emissions can still be significantly reduced, there is a chance to stop global warming at around 1 degree.
But if there are no changes, the average temperature may rise by 4 degrees or more. And in this case, the consequences will be irreversible and disastrous for humanity.
New era
For years, the debate about whether global warming is myth or reality has distracted people from the concrete facts. Our planet is entering a new geological era. This conclusion was made by scientists after long-term observations of the ice cover in the Arctic. According to their conclusion, the Arctic ice is gradually changing. There are more and more young ices, and they drift more intensively than before. In the last century, the surface of the Arctic Ocean was covered with ice all year round, but now in the warm season they melt, sometimes completely disappearing from the vast area of the ocean. If this trend continues, then in the next thirty years the Arctic Ocean will lose its ice completely. Global warming, which scientists have been arguing about for so long, is bearing its first fruits. This is a real threat to all of us, which makes no sense to deny, and it is caused by anthropogenic factors. To put it simply, they spoiled themselves. Here are some facts that will help you realize the seriousness of the situation for the future of the Earth.
15 Interesting Facts About Global Warming
1. Half a century ago, the theory of global warming was formulated. Our planet is simply not able to process so much carbon dioxide that it is released into the atmosphere.
2 .The process of global warming is on the rise. With an increase in CO2 in the atmosphere, the ecology and environment of the Earth is changing faster and faster. Tropical deforestation and melting ice have also contributed to the accumulation of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere.
3. Our planet is heated by the energy of the sun. The surface of the world's oceans and atmosphere are characterized by reflective properties that help to avoid overheating. But this reflectivity is reduced by greenhouse gases, preventing solar energy from leaving the Earth and escaping into space.
4. China, India and the United States produce the largest amount of greenhouse gases, being intensively developing or most developed countries. They have a powerful industry, which creates danger. They are, to a greater extent, responsible for the factors that negatively affect nature and the atmosphere.
5. The vast majority of scientists recognize the threat of global warming, and most of the majority consider it inevitable. But the population, in general, either does not believe in the impending catastrophe or prefers not to notice the problem.
6 .The main cause of global warming and climate change is the anthropogenic factor. This is nothing but the result of our detrimental impact on the environment, for the most part, on the Earth's atmosphere.
7 .At the local level, in various regions of the world, extreme weather events are the result of general global warming. Somewhere the population is haunted by frequent droughts, somewhere, on the contrary, rains do not stop. All these are different consequences of the same problem.
8. The danger of global warming is also that it raises the temperature of the world's oceans. It is in its waters that the increase in the temperature of the Earth is most noticeable, which in the future will lead to a catastrophe.
9. For three decades, the temperature of our planet has risen by half a degree. This is not nonsense, as many might think, that there are some 0.5 ° C. The Earth is a very fragile ecosystem and even the smallest changes can seriously affect its harmony.
10 .Ocean level has risen fifteen centimeters over the past hundred years. This suggests that the Antarctic and Arctic glaciers are melting and melting very quickly. What happens if they continue to melt at the same pace, we already wrote, here.
11. The consumption of large amounts of electricity actually leads to an increase in greenhouse gas emissions. It is during the generation of electricity that forty percent of greenhouse gases are splashed into the atmosphere today.
12. Many scientists believe that the process of global warming is already irreversible, and will only increase. In addition, the governments of developed countries are doing almost nothing that could at least slow down this process. Even if today the harsh impact of man on nature is stopped, the effect of the harm done before will be felt for hundreds of years.
13. An increase in temperature on the planet entails an increase in humidity. The higher the temperature, the more evaporation, and hence precipitation in the form of rain and snow. But here they will fall out unevenly. Some regions will be flooded, others will die from drought.
14. According to scientists' forecasts, the complete melting of ice in the Arctic may occur very soon, in twenty to forty years. This process destroys animals and birds, their distribution areas. First of all, the nature and fauna of the Arctic will suffer. Endangered polar bears.
15. For several years in a row, it rained in central Russia on New Year's Eve, and once it didn't even rain, but a downpour that whipped all day and night. After 2000, with the start of the new century, ten of the warmest years on record have been observed. After the 70s, every decade has been warmer than the last. Snowball effect.
Video: what has changed already now. Global warming