When will the new ice age. A New Ice Age begins on Earth: global cooling and climate change. Little Ice Age
Ecology
The ice ages that have taken place more than once on our planet have always been covered in a mass of mysteries. We know that they shrouded entire continents in cold, turning them into uninhabited tundra.
Also known about 11 such periods, and all of them took place with regular constancy. However, we still don't know much about them. We invite you to get acquainted with the most interesting facts about the ice ages of our past.
giant animals
By the time the last ice age arrived, evolution had already mammals appeared. Animals that could survive in harsh climatic conditions were quite large, their bodies were covered with a thick layer of fur.
Scientists have named these creatures "megafauna", which was able to survive at low temperatures in areas covered with ice, for example, in the region of modern Tibet. Smaller animals couldn't adjust to new conditions of glaciation and perished.
Herbivorous representatives of the megafauna have learned to find their food even under layers of ice and have been able to adapt to the environment in different ways: for example, rhinos ice age had spatulate horns, with the help of which they dug up snowdrifts.
Predatory animals, for example, saber-toothed cats, giant short-faced bears and dire wolves, perfectly survived in the new conditions. Although their prey could sometimes fight back due to their large size, it was in abundance.
ice age people
Although modern man Homo sapiens could not boast at that time of large size and wool, he was able to survive in the cold tundra of the ice ages for many millennia.
Living conditions were harsh, but people were resourceful. For example, 15 thousand years ago they lived in tribes that were engaged in hunting and gathering, built original dwellings from mammoth bones, and sewed warm clothes from animal skins. When food was plentiful, they stocked up in the permafrost - natural freezer.
Mostly for hunting, such tools as stone knives and arrows were used. To catch and kill the large animals of the Ice Age, it was necessary to use special traps. When the beast fell into such traps, a group of people attacked him and beat him to death.
Little Ice Age
Between major ice ages, there were sometimes small periods. It cannot be said that they were destructive, but they also caused famine, disease due to crop failure, and other problems.
The most recent of the Little Ice Ages began around 12th-14th centuries. The most difficult time can be called the period from 1500 to 1850. At this time in the Northern Hemisphere, a fairly low temperature was observed.
In Europe, it was common when the seas froze, and in mountainous areas, for example, in the territory of modern Switzerland, the snow did not melt even in summer. Cold weather affected every aspect of life and culture. Probably, the Middle Ages remained in history, as "Time of Troubles" also because the planet was dominated by a small ice age.
periods of warming
Some ice ages actually turned out to be quite warm. Despite the fact that the surface of the earth was shrouded in ice, the weather was comparatively warm.
Sometimes a sufficiently large amount of carbon dioxide accumulated in the atmosphere of the planet, which is the cause of the appearance greenhouse effect when heat is trapped in the atmosphere and warms the planet. In this case, the ice continues to form and reflect the sun's rays back into space.
According to experts, this phenomenon led to the formation giant desert with ice on the surface but quite warm weather.
When will the next ice age start?
The theory that ice ages occur on our planet at regular intervals goes against theories about global warming. There's no doubt about what's happening today global warming which may help prevent the next ice age.
Human activity leads to the release of carbon dioxide, which is largely responsible for the problem of global warming. However, this gas has another strange by-effect. According to researchers from University of Cambridge, the release of CO2 could stop the next ice age.
According to the planetary cycle of our planet, the next ice age should come soon, but it can take place only if the level of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere will be relatively low. However, CO2 levels are currently so high that no ice age is out of the question any time soon.
Even if humans abruptly stop emitting carbon dioxide into the atmosphere (which is unlikely), the existing amount will be enough to prevent the onset of an ice age. at least another thousand years.
Plants of the Ice Age
The easiest way to live in the Ice Age predators: they could always find food for themselves. But what do herbivores actually eat?
It turns out that there was enough food for these animals. During the ice ages on the planet many plants grew that could survive in harsh conditions. The steppe area was covered with shrubs and grass, which fed mammoths and other herbivores.
Larger plants could also be found in great abundance: for example, firs and pines. Found in warmer regions birches and willows. That is, the climate by and large in many modern southern regions resembled the one that exists today in Siberia.
However, the plants of the Ice Age were somewhat different from modern ones. Of course, with the onset of cold weather many plants died. If the plant was not able to adapt to the new climate, it had two options: either move to more southern zones, or die.
For example, the present-day state of Victoria in southern Australia had the richest variety of plant species on the planet until the Ice Age most of the species died.
Cause of the Ice Age in the Himalayas?
It turns out that the Himalayas, the highest mountain system of our planet, directly related with the onset of the ice age.
40-50 million years ago the land masses where China and India are today collided to form the highest mountains. As a result of the collision, huge volumes of "fresh" rocks from the bowels of the Earth were exposed.
These rocks eroded, and as a result of chemical reactions, carbon dioxide began to be displaced from the atmosphere. The climate on the planet began to become colder, the ice age began.
snowball earth
During different ice ages, our planet was mostly shrouded in ice and snow. only partially. Even during the most severe ice age, ice covered only one third of the globe.
However, there is a hypothesis that at certain periods the Earth was still completely covered in snow, which made her look like a giant snowball. Life still managed to survive thanks to the rare islands with relatively little ice and with enough light for plant photosynthesis.
According to this theory, our planet turned into a snowball at least once, more precisely 716 million years ago.
Garden of Eden
Some scientists are convinced that garden of eden described in the Bible actually existed. It is believed that he was in Africa, and it is thanks to him that our distant ancestors survived the ice age.
About 200 thousand years ago came a severe ice age, which put an end to many forms of life. Fortunately, a small group of people were able to survive the period of severe cold. These people moved to the area where South Africa is today.
Despite the fact that almost the entire planet was covered with ice, this area remained ice-free. A large number of living beings lived here. The soils of this area were rich in nutrients, so there was abundance of plants. Caves created by nature were used by people and animals as shelters. For living beings, it was a real paradise.
According to some scientists, in the "Garden of Eden" lived no more than a hundred people, which is why humans do not have as much genetic diversity as most other species. However, this theory has not found scientific evidence.
A joint statement by various scientific organizations and academies states that Earth is entering the Little Ice Age. In an address to the heads of the world's leading governments and the UN, scientists said: "Humanity is in danger of its continued existence."
Here is a list of organizations that wrote this statement:
- German Academy of Sciences, Leopoldina
- Indian National Science Academy
- Indonesian Academy of Sciences
- Royal Irish Academy
- Accademia Nazionale dei Lincei (Italy)
- Academy of Sciences Malaysia
- Academy Council of the Royal Society of New Zealand
- Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences
- Turkish Academy of Sciences
- Global Atmosphere Watch Program (GAW)
- Global Climate Observing System (GCOS)
- World Climate Program (WCP)
- World Climate Research Program (WCRP)
- World Weather Research Program (WWRP)
- World Weather Watch Program (WWW)
- Commission for Agricultural Meteorology
- Commission for Atmospheric Science
- Australian Academy of Sciences
- Brazilian Academy of Sciences
- Royal Society of Canada
- Caribbean Academy of Sciences
- Chinese Academy of Sciences
- French Academy of Sciences
A sharp change in temperature in 2017.
Climate change in Antarctica and the South Pole
“Data collected from around the world indicate that the catastrophic scenario of cooling will be realized in the coming years. Global cooling has already begun and all of humanity will feel its devastating consequences within 4-6 years,” the report says.
A sharp decrease in the average water temperature in the equatorial part of the Pacific Ocean and in the northeastern part of the Atlantic Ocean.
Scientists emphasize that the data collected recently indicate that the intermediate water masses are cooling at a catastrophic rate.
Temperature change in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau.
Temperature change in Greenland.
Tracing the relationship of global temperature changes, we can see that this is closely related to solar activity.
We see one of the strongest global climate fluctuations during the Holocene, the Little Ice Age marked by a long cooling period from the 14th to the 19th century AD. This cooling was associated with a decrease in solar activity and was especially strong during solar minimums in 1645-1715 . AD and 1790-1830. n. e. These solar activity minima are known, the Maunder minimum and the Dalton minimum. The time for a new low has already come.
Drop in temperature in the South China Sea
“And this is just the beginning, we will face an increasing number of abnormal weather events every day. There will be no place on Earth that these changes will not touch. All countries in the world will be affected by these changes. A new ice age is coming, the entire weather system of the planet is changing and collapsing. Under attack will be all the most important infrastructure for the survival of people. Hunger and cold, that's what humanity expects in the coming years," scientists write.
Global changes are clearly visible from the cataclysms already taking place around the globe. the recent anomalous phenomena in Russia are a very clear example of such changes. Tornadoes, tornadoes, hurricanes, snow in summer, hail, sharp drops in temperature have all been seen by the whole world. Russian meteorologists are no longer able to give a clear and distinct explanation of the reasons why all this is happening, and no one in the whole world will be able to give these explanations.
There is an explanation and it is real - everything that is happening is just the beginning of global cooling and it will affect not only Russia, all of humanity in all countries of the world will fall under its blow.
“We urge heads of state and government around the world to take our report very seriously. It is about the survival of all mankind, and whether it will exist on this planet at all. This is a danger that our modern civilization has not yet encountered in its history. To all leaders. of all the countries of our world, it is necessary now to prepare their countries and people for what awaits them in the very near future. Now is not the time for wars and political strife - it's time to unite in order to survive. Humanity is in danger and only by joint efforts can we try to survive,” the report says.
All this did not begin today or yesterday, but no one wanted to pay attention to the formidable signs. Alarming climate change began back in 2013, when snow suddenly fell in Romania at the most inopportune time period for this, and the most severe winter in 200 years came in Germany, abnormal cold and snowfall came in the USA, and a record low temperatures were set in Antarctica for the entire time of observation, frosts hit Syria and this list goes on and on.
In 2014, the situation did not improve, but became even worse. The number of weather anomalies only increased. There are so many of them that it makes no sense to list everything, it's obvious.
The Gulf Stream has stopped and this is indicated by data from The Earth Wind Map and The NOAA Data Satellite. The Gulf Stream is a warm current, it has become cold and such an anomaly does not bode well for us.
Some climatologists could no longer remain silent and support false assurances about global warming. for example, NASA climatologist John L. Casey, publicly stated that a radical shift has occurred in the global climate and this is not an accident, not a temporary change, but a pattern that changes our climate globally and for decades to come. He warned that if the scientific community and governments around the world do not act in the face of global cooling, the consequences for humanity will be catastrophic.
John L. Casey has warned that the planet is entering a global ice age that will last at least 30 years. Mass death of people and famine, that's what humanity expects.
The Research and Development Corporation (GCSR) is an independent research institute based in Orlando, Florida, USA. It aims to alert governments, media and people to prepare for catastrophic climate change.
Scientists collaborating with GCSR believe that global cooling will be accompanied by the activation of volcanoes and catastrophic earthquakes. Severe frosts, blizzards, snowfalls, global anomalous cooling will last not a year or two, but 30 or 50 years.
Scientists who had the courage to go against the current deceitful system of "global warming" wrote articles, spoke in the media, wrote appeals to the leaders of states, but no one listened to them. The year 2017 has come and already everyone in the world sees for themselves and begins to realize that something incomprehensible and frightening is happening with the weather on earth.
Awareness comes, but time is lost, and if this awareness does not come from those on whom the fate of people depends, the countries they rule will soon disappear.
Governments and public organizations are actively discussing the coming "global warming" and measures to combat it. However, there is a well-founded opinion that in reality we are not waiting for warming, but cooling. And in this case, the fight against industrial emissions, which are believed to contribute to warming, is not only pointless, but also harmful.
It has long been proven that our planet is in the "high risk" zone. A relatively comfortable existence is provided to us by the "greenhouse effect", that is, the ability of the atmosphere to retain the heat coming from the Sun. And yet, global ice ages occur periodically, which differ in that there is a general cooling and a sharp increase in continental ice sheets in Antarctica, Eurasia and North America.
The duration of the cooling is such that scientists talk about entire ice ages that lasted hundreds of millions of years. The last, fourth in a row, Cenozoic, began 65 million years ago and continues to this day. Yes, yes, we live in an ice age, which is unlikely to end in the near future. Why do we think that warming is happening?
The fact is that within the ice age there are cyclically repeating periods of time lasting tens of millions of years, which are called ice ages. They, in turn, are subdivided into glacial epochs, consisting of glaciations (glacials) and interglacials (interglacials).
All modern civilization arose and developed in the Holocene - a relatively warm period after the Pleistocene ice age, which reigned only 10 thousand years ago. A slight warming led to the liberation of Europe and North America from the glacier, which allowed the emergence of an agricultural culture and the first cities, which gave impetus to rapid progress.
For a long time, paleoclimatologists could not understand what caused the current warming. It was found that climate change is influenced by a number of factors: changes in solar activity, oscillations of the earth's axis, composition of the atmosphere (primarily carbon dioxide), the degree of salinity of the ocean, the direction of ocean currents and wind roses. Painstaking research has made it possible to isolate the factors that influenced modern warming.
About 20,000 years ago, the glaciers of the Northern Hemisphere moved so far to the south that even a slight increase in the average annual temperature was enough to start melting them. Fresh water filled the North Atlantic, slowing down local circulation and thereby accelerating warming in the Southern Hemisphere.
The change in the direction of winds and currents led to the fact that the water of the Southern Ocean rose from the depths, and carbon dioxide, which had remained "locked" there for thousands of years, was released into the atmosphere. The mechanism of the "greenhouse effect" was launched, which 15 thousand years ago provoked warming in the Northern Hemisphere.
Approximately 12.9 thousand years ago, a small asteroid fell in the central part of Mexico (now at the site of its fall is Lake Cuitzeo). Ashes from fires and dust thrown into the upper atmosphere caused a new local cooling, which also contributed to the release of carbon dioxide from the depths of the Southern Ocean.
The cooling lasted for about 1,300 years, but in the end only increased the "greenhouse effect" due to the rapid change in the composition of the atmosphere. The climate "swing" once again changed the situation, and warming began to develop at an accelerating pace, the northern glaciers melted, freeing Europe.
Today, carbon dioxide coming from the depths of the southern part of the World Ocean is successfully replaced by industrial emissions, and warming continues: during the 20th century, the average annual temperature increased by 0.7 ° - a very significant amount. It would seem that overheating, rather than sudden cold weather, should be feared. But not everything is so simple.
It seems that the last onset of cold weather was a very long time ago, but humanity remembers well the events related to the "Little Ice Age". So in the special literature they call the strongest European cooling, which lasted from the 16th to the 19th centuries.
View of Antwerp with the frozen river Scheldt / Lucas van Valckenborch, 1590
Paleoclimatologist Le Roy Ladurie analyzed the collected data on the expansion of glaciers in the Alps and the Carpathians. He points to the following fact: the mines developed in the middle of the 15th century in the High Tatras were covered with ice 20 meters thick in 1570, and in the 18th century the thickness of the ice was already 100 meters there. At the same time, the onset of glaciers began in the French Alps. In written sources, endless complaints appeared from the inhabitants of mountain villages that glaciers were burying fields, pastures and houses under them.
Frozen Thames / Abraham Hondius, 1677
As a result, the paleoclimatologist states, “Scandinavian glaciers, synchronously with Alpine glaciers and glaciers from other regions of the world, have been experiencing the first, well-defined historical maximum since 1695,” and “in subsequent years they will begin to advance again.” One of the most terrible winters of the "Little Ice Age" fell on January-February 1709. Here is a quote from a written source of that time:
From an extraordinary cold, such as neither grandfathers nor great-grandfathers remembered<...>the inhabitants of Russia and Western Europe perished. Birds flying through the air froze. In general, in Europe, many thousands of people, animals and trees died.
In the vicinity of Venice, the Adriatic Sea was covered with stagnant ice. The coastal waters of England were covered with ice. Frozen Seine, Thames. Just as great were the frosts in the eastern part of North America.
In the 19th century, the "Little Ice Age" was replaced by warming, and severe winters were a thing of the past for Europe. But what caused them? And won't this happen again?
Frozen lagoon in 1708, Venice / Gabriel Bella
The potential threat of the onset of another ice age was discussed six years ago, when unprecedented frosts hit Europe. The largest European cities were covered with snow. The Danube, the Seine, the canals of Venice and the Netherlands froze. Due to icing and breakage of high-voltage wires, entire areas were de-energized, classes in schools were stopped in some countries, and hundreds of people froze to death.
All these horrifying events had nothing to do with the concept of "global warming" that had been vehemently debated for a decade before. And then scientists had to reconsider their views. They drew attention to the fact that the Sun is currently experiencing a decline in its activity. Perhaps it was this factor that became decisive, exerting a much greater influence on the climate than “global warming” due to industrial emissions.
It is known that the activity of the Sun changes cyclically over 10-11 years. The last 23rd cycle (since the beginning of observations) was indeed distinguished by high activity. This allowed astronomers to say that the 24th cycle will be unprecedented in intensity, especially since this happened earlier, in the middle of the 20th century. However, in this case, the astronomers were wrong. The next cycle was supposed to start in February 2007, but instead there was an extended period of solar "minimum" and the new cycle started late in November 2008.
Khabibullo Abdusamatov, head of the space research laboratory at the Pulkovo Astronomical Observatory of the Russian Academy of Sciences, claims that our planet passed the peak of warming in the period from 1998 to 2005. Now, according to the scientist, the activity of the Sun is slowly declining and will reach its minimum in 2041, due to which a new "Little Ice Age" will come. The scientist expects the peak of cooling in the 2050s. And it can lead to the same consequences as the cooling in the 16th century.
However, there is still reason for optimism. Paleoclimatologists have established that periods of warming between ice ages are 30-40 thousand years. Ours lasts only 10 thousand years. Humanity has a huge supply of time. If in such a short period of time, by historical standards, people have managed to rise from primitive agriculture to space flight, then one can hope that they will find a way to cope with the threat. For example, learn to control the climate.
Used materials from the article by Anton Pervushin,
The last ice age ended 12,000 years ago. In the most severe period, glaciation threatened man with extinction. However, after the glacier melted, he not only survived, but also created a civilization.
Glaciers in the history of the Earth
The last ice age in the history of the Earth is the Cenozoic. It began 65 million years ago and continues to this day. Modern man is lucky: he lives in the interglacial, in one of the warmest periods of the planet's life. Far behind is the most severe ice age - the Late Proterozoic.
Despite global warming, scientists are predicting a new ice age. And if the real one comes only after millennia, then the Little Ice Age, which will reduce annual temperatures by 2-3 degrees, can come quite soon.
The glacier became a real test for man, forcing him to invent means for his survival.
last ice age
The Würm or Vistula glaciation began about 110,000 years ago and ended in the tenth millennium BC. The peak of cold weather fell on the period of 26-20 thousand years ago, the final stage of the Stone Age, when the glacier was the largest.
Little Ice Ages
Even after the glaciers melted, history has known periods of noticeable cooling and warming. Or, in other words, climate pessimism and optima. Pessima are sometimes referred to as Little Ice Ages. In the XIV-XIX centuries, for example, the Little Ice Age began, and the time of the Great Migration of Peoples was the time of the early medieval pessimum.
Hunting and meat food
There is an opinion according to which the human ancestor was rather a scavenger, since he could not spontaneously occupy a higher ecological niche. And all known tools were used to butcher the remains of animals that were taken from predators. However, the question of when and why a person began to hunt is still debatable.
In any case, thanks to hunting and eating meat, the ancient man received a large supply of energy, which allowed him to better endure the cold. The skins of slaughtered animals were used as clothing, shoes and walls of the dwelling, which increased the chances of surviving in a harsh climate.
bipedalism
Bipedalism appeared millions of years ago, and its role was much more important than in the life of a modern office worker. Having freed his hands, a person could engage in intensive construction of a dwelling, the production of clothing, the processing of tools, the extraction and preservation of fire. The upright ancestors roamed freely in open areas, and their life no longer depended on the collection of fruits from tropical trees. Already millions of years ago, they freely moved over long distances and obtained food in river flows.
Walking upright played an insidious role, but it became more of an advantage. Yes, man himself came to cold regions and adapted to life in them, but at the same time he could find both artificial and natural shelters from the glacier.
Fire
The fire in the life of an ancient person was originally an unpleasant surprise, not a boon. Despite this, the ancestor of man first learned to “extinguish” it, and only later to use it for his own purposes. Traces of the use of fire are found in sites that are 1.5 million years old. This made it possible to improve nutrition through the preparation of protein foods, as well as to remain active at night. This further increased the time to create conditions for survival.
Climate
The Cenozoic Ice Age was not a continuous glaciation. Every 40 thousand years, the ancestors of people had the right to a “respite” - temporary thaws. At this time, the glacier receded, and the climate became milder. During periods of harsh climate, natural shelters were caves or regions rich in flora and fauna. For example, the south of France and the Iberian Peninsula were home to many early cultures.
The Persian Gulf 20,000 years ago was a river valley rich in forests and herbaceous vegetation, a truly “antediluvian” landscape. Wide rivers flowed here, exceeding the size of the Tigris and Euphrates by one and a half times. Sahara in some periods became a wet savanna. The last time this happened was 9,000 years ago. This can be confirmed by the rock paintings, which depict the abundance of animals.
Fauna
Huge glacial mammals such as bison, woolly rhinoceros and mammoth became an important and unique source of food for ancient people. Hunting such large animals required a lot of coordination and brought people together noticeably. The effectiveness of "collective work" has shown itself more than once in the construction of parking lots and the manufacture of clothing. Deer and wild horses among ancient people enjoyed no less "honor".
Language and communication
Language was, perhaps, the main life hack of an ancient person. It was thanks to speech that important technologies for processing tools, mining and maintaining fire, as well as various human adaptations for everyday survival, were preserved and transmitted from generation to generation. Perhaps in the Paleolithic language, the details of the hunt for large animals and the direction of migration were discussed.
Allerd warming
Until now, scientists are arguing whether the extinction of mammoths and other glacial animals was the work of man or caused by natural causes - the Allerd warming and the disappearance of forage plants. As a result of the extermination of a large number of animal species, a person in harsh conditions was threatened with death from lack of food. There are known cases of the death of entire cultures simultaneously with the extinction of mammoths (for example, the Clovis culture in North America). Nevertheless, warming has become an important factor in the migration of people to regions whose climate has become suitable for the emergence of agriculture.
Russian scientists promise that in 2014 the world will begin an ice age. Vladimir Bashkin, head of the Gazprom VNIIGAZ laboratory, and Rauf Galiullin, an employee of the Institute for Fundamental Problems of Biology of the Russian Academy of Sciences, argue that there will be no global warming. According to scientists, warm winters are the result of cyclical activity of the sun and cyclical climate change. This warming has continued from the 18th century to the present, and next year the Earth will begin to cool again.
The Little Ice Age will begin gradually and last at least two centuries. The decrease in temperature will reach its peak by the middle of the 21st century.
At the same time, scientists say that the anthropogenic factor - human impact on the environment - does not play such a big role in climate change as is commonly thought. Business in marketing, Bashkin and Galiullin consider, and the promise of cold weather every year is only a way to inflate the price of fuel.
Pandora's Box - The Little Ice Age in the 21st century.
In the next 20-50 years, we are threatened by the Little Ice Age, because it has already happened before and must come again. Researchers believe that the onset of the Little Ice Age was associated with a slowdown in the Gulf Stream around 1300. In the 1310s, Western Europe, judging by the chronicles, experienced a real ecological catastrophe. According to the French Chronicle of Matthew of Paris, the traditionally warm summer of 1311 was followed by four gloomy and rainy summers of 1312-1315. Heavy rains and unusually harsh winters have killed several crops and frozen orchards in England, Scotland, northern France and Germany. Viticulture and wine production ceased in Scotland and northern Germany. Winter frosts began to hit even northern Italy. F. Petrarch and J. Boccaccio recorded that in the XIV century. snow often fell in Italy. A direct consequence of the first phase of the MLP was the massive famine in the first half of the 14th century. Indirectly - the crisis of the feudal economy, the resumption of corvee and major peasant uprisings in Western Europe. In the Russian lands, the first phase of the MLP made itself felt in the form of a series of “rainy years” of the 14th century.
From about the 1370s, temperatures in Western Europe began to slowly rise, mass famine and crop failures ceased. However, cold, rainy summers were a frequent occurrence throughout the 15th century. In winter, snowfalls and frosts were often observed in southern Europe. Relative warming began only in the 1440s, and it immediately led to the rise of agriculture. However, the temperatures of the previous climatic optimum have not been restored. For Western and Central Europe, snowy winters became commonplace, and the period of "golden autumn" began in September.
What is it that affects the climate? Turns out it's the sun! Back in the 18th century, when sufficiently powerful telescopes appeared, astronomers noticed that the number of sunspots on the Sun increased and decreased with a certain periodicity. This phenomenon is called cycles of solar activity. They also found out their average duration - 11 years (the Schwabe-Wolf cycle). Later, longer cycles were also discovered: a 22-year (Hale cycle) associated with a change in the polarity of the solar magnetic field, a "secular" Gleissberg cycle lasting about 80-90 years, and a 200-year (Süss cycle). It is believed that there is even a cycle of 2400 years.
"The fact is that longer cycles, for example, secular ones, modulating the amplitude of the 11-year cycle, lead to the emergence of grandiose minima," said Yury Nagovitsyn. There are several known to modern science: the Wolf minimum (early 14th century), the Sperer minimum (second half of the 15th century) and the Maunder minimum (second half of the 17th century).
Scientists have suggested that the end of the 23rd cycle, in all likelihood, coincides with the end of the secular cycle of solar activity, the maximum of which was in 1957. This, in particular, is evidenced by the curve of relative Wolf numbers, which has approached its minimum mark in recent years. Indirect evidence of the superposition is the delay of the 11-year-old. Comparing the facts, scientists realized that, apparently, a combination of factors indicates an approaching grandiose minimum. Therefore, if in the 23rd cycle the activity of the Sun was about 120 relative Wolf numbers, then in the next it should be about 90-100 units, astrophysicists suggest. Further activity will decrease even more.
The fact is that longer cycles, for example, secular ones, modulating the amplitude of the 11-year cycle, lead to the appearance of grandiose minima, the last of which occurred in the 14th century. What are the consequences for the Earth? It turns out that it was during the grandiose maxima and minima of solar activity on Earth that large temperature anomalies were observed.
The climate is a very complicated thing, it is very difficult to trace all its changes, all the more so on a global scale, but as scientists suggest, the greenhouse gases that bring the vital activity of mankind slowed down the arrival of the Little Ice Age a little, besides, the world ocean, having accumulated part of the heat over the past decades, is also delaying the process the beginning of the Little Ice Age, giving off a little bit of its heat. As it turned out later, vegetation on our planet absorbs excess carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4) well. The main influence on the climate of our planet is still exerted by the Sun, and we cannot do anything about it.
Nothing catastrophic, of course, will happen, but in this case, part of the northern regions of Russia may become completely unsuitable for life, oil production in the north of the Russian Federation may cease altogether.
In my opinion, the beginning of a decrease in global temperature can already be expected in 2014-2015. In 2035-2045, the solar luminosity will reach a minimum, and after that, with a delay of 15-20 years, the next climate minimum will come - a deep cooling of the Earth's climate.
News about the end of the world » The Earth is threatened by a new ice age.
Scientists predict a decline in solar activity that may occur over the next 10 years. The consequence of this may be a repetition of the so-called "Little Ice Age", which happened in the XVII century, writes Times.
According to scientists, the frequency of sunspots in the coming years may decrease significantly.
The cycle of formation of new sunspots that affect the temperature of the Earth is 11 years. However, employees of the American National Observatory suggest that the next cycle may be very late or not happen at all. According to the most optimistic forecasts, they argue, a new cycle could begin in 2020-21.
Scientists are speculating whether the change in solar activity will lead to a second "Maunder Low" - a period of sharp decline in solar activity that lasted 70 years, from 1645 to 1715. During this time, also known as the "Little Ice Age", the river Thames was covered with almost 30 meters of ice, on which horse-drawn cabs successfully traveled from Whitehall to London Bridge.
According to researchers, the decline in solar activity can lead to the fact that the average temperature on the planet will drop by 0.5 degrees. However, most scientists believe that it is too early to sound the alarm. During the "Little Ice Age" in the XVII century, the air temperature dropped significantly only in the north-west of Europe, and even then only by 4 degrees. On the rest of the planet, the temperature dropped by only half a degree.
The Second Coming of the Little Ice Age
In historical time, Europe has already once experienced a prolonged anomalous cooling.
Abnormally severe frosts that reigned in Europe at the end of January almost led to a full-scale collapse in many Western countries. Due to heavy snowfalls, many highways were blocked, power supply was interrupted, and aircraft reception at airports was canceled. Due to frost (in the Czech Republic, for example, reaching -39 degrees), classes in schools, exhibitions and sports matches are canceled. In the first 10 days of extreme frosts in Europe alone, more than 600 people died from them.
For the first time in many years, the Danube froze from the Black Sea to Vienna (the ice there reaches 15 cm thick), blocking hundreds of ships. To prevent the freezing of the Seine in Paris, an icebreaker that had long been idle was launched into the water. Ice has blocked the canals of Venice and the Netherlands; in Amsterdam, skaters and cyclists ride on its frozen waterways.
The situation for modern Europe is extraordinary. However, looking at famous works of European art of the 16th-18th centuries or in the records of the weather of those years, we learn that the freezing of canals in the Netherlands, the Venetian lagoon or the Seine was a rather frequent phenomenon for that time. The end of the 18th century was especially extreme.
Thus, the year 1788 was remembered by Russia and Ukraine as the "great winter", accompanied throughout their European part by "extraordinary cold, storms and snow". In Western Europe in December of the same year, a record temperature of -37 degrees was recorded. Birds froze on the fly. The Venetian lagoon froze over, and the townspeople skated along its entire length. In 1795, the ice bound the shores of the Netherlands with such force that an entire military squadron was captured in it, which was then surrounded by ice from land by a French cavalry squadron. In Paris that year, frosts reached -23 degrees.
Paleoclimatologists (historians who study climate change) call the period from the second half of the 16th century to the beginning of the 19th century the “Little Ice Age” (A.S. Monin, Yu.A. epoch" (E. Le Roy Ladurie "History of climate since 1000". L., 1971). They note that during that period there were not individual cold winters, but in general a decrease in temperature on Earth.
Le Roy Ladurie analyzed data on the expansion of glaciers in the Alps and the Carpathians. He points to the following fact: the gold mines developed in the middle of the 15th century in the High Tatras in 1570 were covered with ice 20 m thick, in the 18th century the thickness of the ice there was already 100 m. By 1875, despite the widespread retreat throughout the 19th century and the melting of glaciers, the thickness of the glacier over the medieval mines in the High Tatras was still 40 m. At the same time, as the French paleoclimatologist notes, the onset of glaciers began in the French Alps. In the commune of Chamonix-Mont-Blanc, in the mountains of Savoy, "the advance of the glaciers definitely began in 1570-1580."
Le Roy Ladurie gives similar examples with exact dates in other places in the Alps. In Switzerland, evidence of the expansion of a glacier in the Swiss Grindelwald dates back to 1588, and in 1589 a glacier descended from the mountains blocked the valley of the Saas River. In the Pennine Alps (in Italy near the border with Switzerland and France) in 1594–1595, a noticeable expansion of glaciers was also noted. “In the Eastern Alps (Tyrol, etc.), glaciers advance in the same way and simultaneously. The first information about this dates back to 1595, writes Le Roy Ladurie. And he adds: “In 1599-1600, the glacier development curve reached its peak for the entire region of the Alps.” Since that time, in written sources, there have been endless complaints from the inhabitants of mountain villages that glaciers are burying their pastures, fields and houses under them, thus erasing entire settlements from the face of the earth. In the XVII century, the expansion of glaciers continues.
This is consistent with the expansion of glaciers in Iceland, starting from the end of the 16th century and throughout the 17th century advancing on settlements. As a result, Le Roy Ladurie states, “Scandinavian glaciers, synchronously with Alpine glaciers and glaciers from other regions of the world, have experienced the first, well-defined historical maximum since 1695,” and “in subsequent years they will begin to advance again.” This continued until the middle of the 18th century.
The thickness of the glaciers of those centuries can indeed be called historical. On the graph of changes in the thickness of glaciers in Iceland and Norway over the past 10 thousand years, published in the book by Andrey Monin and Yuri Shishkov "The History of Climate", it is clearly seen how the thickness of glaciers, which began to grow around 1600, by 1750 reached the level at which the glaciers kept in Europe during the period of 8-5 thousand years BC.
Is it any wonder that since the 1560s, contemporaries have recorded in Europe over and over again extraordinary cold winters, which were accompanied by the freezing of large rivers and reservoirs? These cases are indicated, for example, in the book by Yevgeny Borisenkov and Vasily Pasetsky “A Millennial Chronicle of Unusual Natural Phenomena” (M., 1988). In December 1564, the powerful Scheldt in the Netherlands completely froze over and stood under the ice until the end of the first week of January 1565. The same cold winter was repeated in 1594/95, when the Scheldt and the Rhine froze over. The seas and straits froze: in 1580 and 1658 - the Baltic Sea, in 1620/21 - the Black Sea and the Bosporus Strait, in 1659 - the Great Belt Strait between the Baltic and North Seas (the minimum width of which is 3.7 km).
The end of the 17th century, when, according to Le Roy Ladurie, the thickness of glaciers in Europe reaches a historical maximum, was marked by crop failures due to prolonged severe frosts. As noted in the book by Borisenkov and Pasetsky: “The years 1692-1699 were marked in Western Europe by continuous crop failures and hunger strikes.”
One of the worst winters of the Little Ice Age occurred in January-February 1709. Reading the description of those historical events, you involuntarily try them on modern ones: “From an extraordinary cold, such as neither grandfathers nor great-grandfathers remembered ... the inhabitants of Russia and Western Europe died. Birds flying through the air froze. In general, in Europe, many thousands of people, animals and trees died. In the vicinity of Venice, the Adriatic Sea was covered with stagnant ice. The coastal waters of England were covered with ice. Frozen Seine, Thames. The ice on the Meuse River reached 1.5 m. The frosts were just as great in the eastern part of North America. The winters of 1739/40, 1787/88 and 1788/89 were no less severe.
In the 19th century, the Little Ice Age gave way to warming and harsh winters are a thing of the past. Is he coming back now?