Unemployment has made Belarus a leader in the post-Soviet space. New old unemployment: where did they come from and what do the new, unusually high numbers mean Unemployment rate in Belarus
By 19.1 thousand people and reached the level of 1% of the economically active population of the country. The increase in the number of unemployed is associated with the optimization of labor collectives in industry, construction and agriculture. Taking into account the persistence of negative trends and the possible cessation of the activities of entrepreneurs trading in the markets, the number of unemployed in 2016 may increase by 2.5-3 times compared to their number as of January 1, 2016, experts of Belarus in Focus came to such conclusions .
According to Belstat, as of January 1, 2016, the number of registered unemployed in Belarus amounted to 43.3 thousand people, which is 1% of the economically active population of Belarus. As of January 1, 2015, the registered unemployment rate was 0.5%, and the number of unemployed was 24.2 thousand people. In 2015, for the first time in the past few years, the number of unemployed exceeded the number of vacancies in labor and social protection bodies. As of January 1, the number of vacancies was 28.7 thousand offers, a year earlier the number of vacancies was 33.6 thousand.
The main reason for the change in trends in the labor market was the general situation in the economy. In 2015, there was a decline in the industry, investment in construction was reduced, and there was a decline in the consumer market. As a result of the optimization of labor collectives in 2015, the number of laid-off workers exceeded the number of those hired by 81.3 thousand people, of which 52.5 thousand people were in industry. In the context of a shortage of jobs, low-paid vacancies were filled in the field of social protection, education and health care. The low unemployment rate of about $10 a month and the presence of mandatory public works to receive benefits significantly adjust the real unemployment rate downward.
In 2016, the decline in industry will continue, as there are no prerequisites for improvement in the country's economic situation. There are not enough building plots for housing construction, which will lead to further cuts in this area. The decrease in purchasing power will lead to a decrease in retail turnover and the closure of a number of unprofitable stores. A significant part of entrepreneurs trading in the markets have suspended their work and will not be able to continue it due to possible confiscation of goods and penalties for the lack of a certificate of conformity for the products sold.
Due to the lack of vacancies in the labor market, further growth in the number of unemployed is expected. Potential cuts in 2016 may exceed 2015 figures. Given the new seniority requirements for old age pension, it will be more difficult for young people to get a job due to an increase in the number of people of retirement age who will hold jobs until they accumulate the necessary seniority for a pension. These factors can lead to a general increase in the number of unemployed in 2016 in the range of 60-90 thousand people, which will increase the unemployment rate by 2.5-3 times compared to the data at the beginning of 2016.
Thus, in 2015 the number of unemployed officially registered with the labor and social protection authorities doubled. Given the persistence of negative trends in the economy and due to the lack of a decision on the further employment of entrepreneurs trading in the markets, the unemployment rate in 2016 may increase by another 2.5-3 times.
Unemployment in Belarus has reached a historic low. At the beginning of October, there were 15,000 officially unemployed in the country, according to the Ministry of Labor. This is 45.1% less unemployed than a year earlier. The level of registered unemployment at the beginning of this month in Belarus amounted to 0.3%. At the same time, the actual unemployment rate is noticeably higher than the official one: the number of unemployed, classified in accordance with the criteria of the International Labor Organization, was 260.6 thousand people in the first quarter of this year.
The picture is illustrative. Photo: Evgeny Erchak, TUT.BY
The level of registered unemployment in the Brest and Vitebsk regions was 0.5%, in the Gomel, Grodno and Mogilev regions - 0.4%, in the Minsk region - 0.3%, and in Minsk - 0.1%.
Recall that in the country as a whole, the level of registered unemployment at the beginning of September this year was 0.4%, the same figure was at the beginning and - also 0.4%, and at the beginning of June, May, April, March - 0.5%.
Such a low number of officially unemployed, as at the beginning of October, has never been in Belarus. So, at the beginning of September this year, 16.3 thousand people were registered as unemployed, August - 16.6 thousand, July - almost 17.8 thousand, June - 19.8 thousand, May - 21.8 thousand, April - 22.9 thousand, March - 23.9 thousand.
At the end of 2017, there were 22.9 thousand officially unemployed in Belarus, in 2016 - 35.3 thousand, in 2015 - 43.3 thousand, in 2014 - 24.2 thousand, in 2013 - 20.9 thousand, in 2012 - 24.9 thousand, 2013 - 28.2 thousand, 2012 - 33.1 thousand, 2009 - 40.3 thousand, 2008 - 37.3 thousand, 2007 - 44.1 thousand, 2006 - 52 thousand, 2005 - 67.9 thousand, 2004 - 83 thousand, 2003 - 136.1 thousand, 2002 - 130.5 thousand, 2001 - 102.9 thousand, 2000 - 95.8 thousand.
At the same time, the number of vacancies has increased to a record high in Belarus. So, as of October 1 this year, employers reported information about 79.2 thousand vacancies. This is 42.8% more than in the same period last year.
“The demand for workers in working professions amounted to 65.4 percent of the total number of vacancies against 60.3% as of October 1, 2017,” the Ministry of Labor specifies. “The coefficient of tension in the labor market of the republic as of October 1 this year amounted to 0.2 unemployed per vacancy (as of October 1, 2017 - 0.5).”
At the same time, in Brest and Vitebsk regions, this indicator was 0.3 unemployed per vacancy, in Gomel, Grodno, Minsk and Mogilev regions - 0.2, and in Minsk - 0.1 unemployed per vacancy.
Recall that in March last year Alexander Lukashenko to employ by May 1 all the unemployed in the country. It was not possible to fulfill this order, but the number of unemployed in the country, according to official statistics, has decreased. So, as of May 1 last year, there were 39.8 thousand official unemployed in Belarus. In April, their number decreased by 3.6 thousand people. Prior to this, the number of unemployed Belarusians for three months.
In 2017, in Belarus, the number of unemployed, classified in accordance with the ILO criteria, in 2017 was 293.4 thousand people. This is 2.8% less than in 2016.
Unemployment in Belarus has reached a historic low. At the beginning of October, there were 15,000 officially unemployed in the country, according to the Ministry of Labor. This is 45.1% less unemployed than a year earlier.
The level of registered unemployment at the beginning of this month in Belarus amounted to 0.3%. At the same time, the actual unemployment rate is noticeably higher than the official one: the number of unemployed, classified in accordance with the criteria of the International Labor Organization, in the first quarter of this year amounted to 260.6 thousand people.
The level of registered unemployment in Brest and Vitebsk regions was 0.5%, in Gomel, Grodno and Mogilev - 0.4%, in Minsk region - 0.3%, and in Minsk - 0.1%.
Recall that in the country as a whole, the level of registered unemployment at the beginning of September this year was 0.4%, the same figure was at the beginning of August and July - also 0.4%, and at the beginning of June, May, April, March - 0.5 %.
Such a low number of officially unemployed, as at the beginning of October, has never been in Belarus. So, at the beginning of September this year, 16.3 thousand people were registered as unemployed, 16.6 thousand in August, almost 17.8 thousand in July, 19.8 thousand in June, 21.8 thousand in May, 22.9 thousand, May - 23.9 thousand.
At the end of 2017, there were 22.9 thousand officially unemployed in Belarus, in 2016 - 35.3 thousand, in 2015 - 43.3 thousand, in 2014 - 24.2 thousand, in 2013 - 20.9 thousand, in 2012 - 24.9 thousand, 2013 - 28.2 thousand, 2012 - 33.1 thousand, 2009 - 40.3 thousand, 2008 - 37.3 thousand, 2007 - 44.1 thousand, 2006 - 52 thousand, 2005 - 67.9 thousand, 2004 - 83 thousand, 2003 - 136.1 thousand, 2002 - 130.5 thousand, 2001 - 102.9 thousand, 2000 - 95.8 thousand.
At the same time, the number of vacancies has increased to a record high in Belarus. So, as of October 1 this year, employers reported information about 79.2 thousand vacancies. This is 42.8% more than in the same period last year.
“The demand for workers in working professions amounted to 65.4 percent of the total number of vacancies against 60.3% as of October 1, 2017,” the Ministry of Labor specifies. - The coefficient of tension in the labor market of the republic as of October 1 this year amounted to 0.2 unemployed per vacancy (as of October 1, 2017 - 0.5).
At the same time, in Brest and Vitebsk regions, this indicator was 0.3 unemployed per vacancy, in Gomel, Grodno, Minsk and Mogilev regions - 0.2, and in Minsk - 0.1 unemployed per vacancy.
Recall that in March last year, Alexander Lukashenko demanded that all the unemployed in the country be employed by May 1. It was not possible to fulfill this order, but the number of unemployed in the country, according to official statistics, has decreased. So, as of May 1 last year, there were 39.8 thousand official unemployed in Belarus. In April, their number decreased by 3.6 thousand people. Prior to this, the number of unemployed Belarusians had been increasing for three months.
In 2017, in Belarus, the number of unemployed, classified in accordance with the ILO criteria, in 2017 amounted to 293.4 thousand people. This is 2.8% less than in 2016.
Unemployment is a phenomenon in which the economically active population, who is willing and able to work, is unable to find a paid job.
Exist several types of unemployment:
- forced;
- at will;
- structural;
- institutional;
- unstable;
- friction;
- marginal;
- youth;
- registered;
- hidden.
To identify a person as unemployed, the age from ten to seventy-two according to international standards, and from fifteen to seventy-two according to the methodology of the statistical bureau of the Russian Federation, as well as not being employed, not having a job, being in search of employment, readiness to start working in the future labor duties.
In order to determine the unemployment rate, which is an indicator of the number of unemployed, the ratio of the unemployed to the total active population is calculated and reflected as a percentage.
In turn, employed persons are: employees of working age, entrepreneurs, family business workers, employers, members of cooperatives, collective farmers, working pensioners, as well as persons who work, but have not yet reached working age.
The employment ratio reflects the difference between the number of employed people and the total number of the economically active population.
The natural rate of unemployment refers to the term "full employment". However, in this case, natural unemployment is not identical to the absence of unemployment as such. Natural rate unemployment can be defined as an economic situation in which there is no cyclical unemployment, but there is frictional unemployment and structural unemployment.
Prerequisites for natural unemployment can be factors such as lack of information, artificial barriers in legislation, bureaucracy, demographic changes, and much more. It is not possible to change the situation with natural unemployment in the short term; long-term economic transformations are needed.
Unemployment as an economic phenomenon also has negative social consequences. After all, a person whose income has significantly decreased, as well as a loss of qualification, is doomed to psychosomatic reactions. And this, in turn, will inevitably result in social frigidity and worthlessness. And the latter is already fraught with an increase in suicidal and criminal cases. So, according to the well-known academician of the Russian Academy of Sciences Viktor Ivanter, an unemployed person, even if he receives unemployment benefits, becomes dangerous for society.
Unemployment rate in Belarus
If we talk about unemployment in Belarus, then apparently our country has something to be proud of. So, according to the latest data, at the beginning of the new year, the rate of unemployed, who are officially registered, has reached an incredible minimum. However, what is the real unemployment in the country?
|
2016 to 2015, % |
|||
|---|---|---|---|
|
September |
|||
according to the Ministry of Labor and Social Protection of the Republic of Belarus
|
2017 to 2016, % |
|||
|---|---|---|---|
|
September |
|||
|
2018 to 2017, % |
|||
|---|---|---|---|
| 11,7 | |||
| 15,2 | 10,5 | 69,1 | |
| 14,8 | 10,7 | 72,3 | |
| 13,2 | 9,4 | 71,2 | |
| 10,6 | 8,2 | 77,4 | |
| 12 | 9,2 | 76,7 | |
|
September |
11 | 8,9 | 80,9 |
| 12,3 | 10,5 | 85,4 | |
| 10,9 | 9,3 | 85,3 | |
| 8,7 | 6,9 | 79,3 |
according to the Ministry of Labor and Social Protection of the Republic of Belarus
|
2019 to 2018, % |
|||
|---|---|---|---|
| 11,7 | 9,8 | 83,8 | |
| 10,6 | 84,9 | ||
| 10,3 | 79,6 | ||
| 10,5 | 8,8 | 83,8 | |
| 10,7 | 7,7 | 71,9 | |
| 9,4 | 7 | 74,5 | |
| 8,2 | 7 | 85,4 | |
| 9,2 | 7,1 | 77,2 | |
|
September |
8,9 | 7,8 | 87,6 |
| 10,5 | 8,1 | 77 | |
| 9,3 | 6,4 | 68,8 | |
| 6,9 |
according to the Ministry of Labor and Social Protection of the Republic of Belarus
The low unemployment rate in Belarus in 2014 can be partly explained by the fact that many unemployed citizens do not want to be registered with employment services, or stock exchanges. The reason is the mockingly low amount of the benefit, which has a temporary factor and is paid only during the first six months. In addition, in order to receive a meager benefit, the unemployed is obliged to take part in social work, for example, picking potatoes on collective farm fields, or cleaning streets and yards.
Norway is not familiar with such a social and economic phenomenon. In this Scandinavian country, unemployment benefits are paid throughout life if a person does not wish to work. At the same time, the amount of the allowance is equivalent to one and a half thousand. For that kind of money, Norwegians can live in the countries of Southeast Asia for six months, as respected and wealthy people.
According to the National Statistical Bureau of Belarus, as of January 1, 2015, the unemployment rate in Belarus fell to 0.5 percent. In quantitative terms, the number of official unemployed amounted to almost twenty-five thousand people. Official data is far from what the country's actual unemployment rate is.
Many experts agree with the fact that the reluctance of the unemployed to officially register at the labor exchange because of low benefits, including the former Minister of Labor of the Republic of Belarus Aleksandra Sosnova. Thus, unemployment benefits in Minsk in February 2014 amounted to 112 thousand 400 rubles, which at that time corresponded to 11 US dollars.
As mentioned above, another reason for the reluctance of the unemployed to officially register is forced labor. Although according to the convention of the International Labor Organization, such actions are prohibited in principle. In our country, this convention has already been ratified, which does not prevent state bodies from continuing to involve the unemployed in public works.
What else would have to be determined is the rate of unemployment at full employment, which would make it possible to paint a picture of natural unemployment. However, in the national statistical office, such figures are for internal use only, not to be made public.
However, as in any third country in the world, Belarus has found its own way of fighting unemployment. We are talking about the introduction of the unemployed in 2015 tax.
At the end of 2016, the number of officially registered unemployed in Belarus amounted to 35.3 thousand people. This figure is 18.5% less than at the end of 2015 and 1.4% less than at the end of November 2016. According to the National Statistical Committee, the level of registered unemployment at the end of 2015 was 1% of the economically active population of Belarus, and at the end of 2016 - 0.8%. However, the actual unemployment rate, published by Belstat according to a sample survey of households, amounted to 5.8% in 2016 (257.1 thousand people from the economically active population).
As of January 1, 2017, the labor market tension ratio in Belarus decreased from 1.5 to 1 unemployed person per vacancy compared to January 1, 2016.
As of December 1, 2018, 14.2 thousand people were registered as unemployed, which is 41.1% less unemployed than on December 1, 2017 (24.1 thousand people). The registered unemployment rate amounted to 0.3% and decreased by 0.3% compared to the same period (0.6%).
Registered unemployment as of January 1, 2019 amounted to 0.3% and decreased by 0.2% compared to January 1, 2018 (0.5%).
The level of officially registered unemployment as of January 1, 2020 amounted to 0.2% of the labor force, which is 0.1% less than as of January 1, 2019 - 0.3%.
2019 is marked by demand for labor. As of January 1, 2020, the labor, employment and social protection authorities received information about the presence of 83.6 thousand vacancies, which amounted to 110.7% by January 1, 2019. The need for workers in working professions amounted to 61.6% of the total number of vacancies. The coefficient of tension in the labor market of Belarus decreased from 0.2 as of January 1, 2019 to 0.1 unemployed per vacancy as of January 1, 2020.
according to the Ministry of Labor and Social Protection of the Republic of Belarus
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What happened?
Belarusians have learned the level of actual unemployment for the fourth time in modern economic history. It first happened in 1999. In Belarus, the first population census after the collapse of the USSR was held that year. Then there was triple-digit inflation, multiple exchange rates, and a $40 salary. Against the background of such economic problems, the unemployment rate of 6.2% of the economically active population (according to the census) could hardly surprise anyone. Officially registered unemployment in 1999 was almost three times less - 2.2%.
We waited 10 years for the next figure, until the next census. 2009 was not a perfect year either. The first currency crisis since 2000. Deep drop in exports and domestic demand. Strong deterioration in the terms of trade for petroleum products. In such conditions, the unemployment rate was 6.1% against the background of 0.86% officially registered.
For the third time, the figure of actual unemployment was published by the National Bank. It was in 2012. The Household Employment Survey had just begun, the economy was growing only at the expense of "solvents" and was gradually moving away from the deepest currency crisis of 2011. The National Bank published the May result of a new Belstat survey - 5.6% of the economically active population. The officially registered unemployed at that time were a very rare species - they only accounted for 0.65% of the economically active population.
Finally, today Belstat published data for 2016. Unemployed last year was 5.8% of the economically active population.
What then does the official figure of 1% of the economically active population mean?
Let's take a look at the definitions. The economically active population is those people who work (employed) or do not work, but are actively looking for work (unemployed). If everything is more or less clear with the employed, then with the unemployed - not quite. According to the official version, the unemployed are people who have received the status of unemployed in the employment assistance service. That is, the figure to which we are accustomed is the level of officially registered unemployment.
In censuses and in the Household Employment Survey, Belstat uses the internationally accepted definition of the International Labor Organization. According to this definition, an unemployed person is one who (a) calls himself unemployed, (b) is actively looking for a job, and (c) is ready to start working as soon as possible (within the next 2 weeks). Since far from all such people are registered in Belarus, the number of actual unemployed in Belarus is traditionally higher than the number of registered unemployed.
And why have there always been more unemployed in Belarus than was registered?
The main reason is the too small amount of unemployment benefits, which can be received for no more than 6 months. For example, if the registered unemployed had to pay a "parasite tax", then the benefits would not be enough. But not all registered unemployed receive it, but about half of them. You also need to participate in community service in order to receive benefits. In fact, the costs of obtaining the status of registered unemployed exceed the benefits, so unemployed Belarusians prefer to do without registration.
By the way, in some countries, even those who work (in the shadow sector) join the labor exchange - there the benefits are higher than in our country, but there is no requirement to participate in public works. Therefore, sometimes registered unemployment exceeds the actual one, which, by the way, also speaks of shortcomings in the “design” of social protection for the unemployed.
If for so long we have been “suggested” with deliberately underestimated data, can we trust the new figures from Belstat?
Can. The household survey on employment is based on the standard labor force survey methodology. The World Bank helped us develop and implement the survey. The survey covers 7,000 households on a quarterly basis, or 28,000 households a year—no polling organization in Belarus does anything comparable in coverage. It is on the basis of such data that labor market research is carried out and recommendations are prepared for socio-economic policies around the world.
Sensation! High unemployment in Belarus!
In a way, this is truly a sensation. Many expected that unemployment would be a couple of percentage points higher in the face of such a prolonged recession. But in fact, our unemployment rate is comparable to the Russian one (there was 5.4% at the end of 2016), much less than in Ukraine (9.6% in the 3rd quarter of 2016), Latvia (9.8% in the 3rd quarter of 2016), Lithuania (7.5% at the end of 2016) and even slightly less than in Poland (6% at the end of 2016). This means that business has adapted to the crisis not only (and not so much) through a reduction in employment, but also through a reduction in wages. And also - that the Belarusians are really actively looking for work. Similar mechanisms operated in the labor market in Russia.
What difference does it make how many people are unemployed - it will not affect economic policy anyway ...
Indeed, all official documents so far have been oriented towards official published the indicator is the number of registered unemployed. Based on this figure, budget expenditures were planned to support the unemployed and promote employment. A clear example of the consequences of using data on registered rather than actual unemployment is the emergence of a decree on “social dependency”. If, at the time of assessing the situation, its authors had taken into account the number of 200-250 thousand unemployed, and not 40 thousand, then the decree might not have appeared.
That is, an open recognition of the fact that unemployment in Belarus is noticeably higher than 1% can and should become a reason for revising the employment promotion strategy, budget and social protection legislation. And one more small step on the way to the formation of public confidence in the authorities.